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Using this decomposition, we find that nonmonotonicities and nonlinearities in trading relating to lagged returns are due to opposing patterns in attention and conditional trading. Conditional trading is generally decreasing in lagged returns, whereas attention is increasing for a wide range of lagged returns. trading and news media stock market coverage are positively correlated due to both attention and conditional trading. attention and conditional trading move in opposite directions with the VIX, with the net effect on trading being ambiguous. These findings suggest new insights into the behavioral drivers of trading. For example, the increased conditional trading in down markets is consistent with bargain hunting and stop loss strategies but is inconsistent with trading based realization utility bursts. In addition, trading confidence feedbacks i. e. , increased trading induced by positive past returns appear to operate through the attention channel rather than through conditional trading. In particular, investors are empirically more engaged in financial markets after they experience favorable returns in the sense that they pay more attention, whereas trading is inversely related to prior returns after controlling for attention. Attention is also important as a micro foundation of household finance see Campbell 2006 for a review of the previous literature.
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